A well-known trader, renowned for accurately predicting crypto market trends, is sharing his Bitcoin forecast following the recent BTC halving event. Going by the pseudonym Dave the Wave, this analyst has a substantial following of 147,000 on the social media platform X. He has posted a chart indicating that Bitcoin could potentially reach $169,500 by the last quarter of 2024.
Dave the Wave has observed that Bitcoin consistently experiences diminishing returns after each bull market since 2012. In the current cycle, he anticipates gains of over 626% from the bottom, which is significantly lower than the 1,275% gains seen during the 2020 cycle. He emphasizes that reduced returns have been the only notable constant in Bitcoin’s history.
As of now, Bitcoin is trading at $66,938, reflecting a 3.5% increase in the past day. Dave the Wave analyzes Bitcoin’s future trajectory using the logarithmic growth curve (LGC), an investment model that seeks to forecast the market cycle highs and lows while filtering out short-term volatility.
The analyst explains that reaching a new all-time high before a halving event is not uncommon. He believes that the halving marks the midway point of a bull market and expects Bitcoin to embark on a steep rally from this point, heading towards the top of his LGC model.
Dave the Wave points out that previous halvings have coincided with previous all-time highs, indicating that halvings are generally associated with price recoveries and act as milestones towards market peaks. He also notes that the initial peak in the previous cycle should be considered the macro top in terms of momentum, despite a nominal higher price being observed during the second peak.
It is important to note that the opinions expressed in this article are not investment advice. Investors are urged to conduct their own research and exercise caution when engaging in high-risk investments involving Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, or digital assets. The Daily Hodl, the source of this article, does not endorse the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor does it provide investment advice.
